Latest IHME COVID-19 model pushes easing of social distancing restrictions for Florida further into June

Apr 23, 2020 in "The Walt Disney Company"

The latest IHME COVID-19 model suggests Florida may have to wait a few weeks longer to begin any early phases of easing social distancing.

Latest data puts Florida at a potential June 14 start for beginning easing of social distancing.

According to IHME, these estimated dates are based on projections of all-age COVID-19 prevalent infections – that is, all occurring infections in a location, not just new ones – and when these projections fall below 1 prevalent infection per 1,000,000 population for the upper bound of the 95% uncertainty interval. This threshold is viewed as a conservative estimate of what locations could potentially identify via active case detection and contact tracing given available public health resources.

Walt Disney World continues to remain closed until further notice, although the resort has accepted new reservations from June 1. We expect to hear more soon as government and business leaders continue to plan for Florida's reopening.

Discuss on the Forums
Article Posted: Apr 23, 2020 / 11:07am ET
View all comments →

SamusAranX52 minutes ago

Yes I have insurance and savings. I also quarantined before leaving. I didn’t want to accidentally spread covid at all. Wore a mask during travel, cooked our own meals or did Togo rather then eating inside. Did not visit any bars or clubs or indoor gatherings. But I know many can’t; they have to work, get kids to school, etc. so it’s just not feasible to quarantine. I mean I suppose you could take a rapid test but then there are accuracy issues (which is why I did a PCR swab test when I got home rather then the free rapid; tested negative) I’m fortunate but I know others aren’t. It’s very tough. But in the end, yes if you can’t or aren’t willing take the responsible measures then no you shouldn’t travel. I apologize if that seems hypocritical or “what’s good for the goose”. :(

seabreezept8131 hour ago

In addition to the many employers offer flu clinics. I know us folks in the education sector are hoping the school nurse can do the covid vaccines on site, but we’ll see if it gets that organized.

helenabear1 hour ago

They were quick to book up when we tried. Have you tried nearby counties?

jmp851 hour ago

Lucked out and got one of the 'extra' doses today. Was opened already and going to go bad. Will let everyone know if I gain superhuman abilities.

Polkadotdress1 hour ago

Same....same.... Even though that yahoo article was published today, it still mentions the (now) outdated fact that both Trump and Biden administrations have/had planned to release all the reserve vaccines, thereby doubling the amount being sent to states. Duoh! My in-laws (Hillsborough Cty) are coming up with nothing still. So frustrating.

Disney Experience1 hour ago

Percent vaccinated or recovered will have to go up to get herd immunity if it dominates before herd immunity has significant impact

DCBaker1 hour ago

DisneyCane1 hour ago

What do you think will change?

Disney Experience1 hour ago

Nice paper on R0 number for Covid in the various states (and various times). (These will change if UK or similar variant gets dominate) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.17.20104653v3.full.pdf Estimates of R0 reveal the potential threat of epidemics when restrictions are eased, as well as the potential challenges for vaccination campaigns: using the rule of thumb that a proportion 1 – 1/R0 of a population needs to be vaccinated (but see Gerberry and Philip 2016), vaccination coverage will have to be roughly 60% on average among the States we analyzed (Fig. 1C). This, however, is misleading, because it does not consider the variation among States, and for New York State the R0 = 6.4 suggests a vaccination rate of 85%. Furthermore, recommendations for vaccinations should also vary within States. Our initial R0 estimates are driven mainly by "hotspots" within States, like New York City, where deaths increased most rapidly. More generally, we caution that vaccination programs must consider not only local infection rates but also movement of infected individuals between States New York's R0 =6.4 would actually require 88.82% but the paper is close enough.

TINKWINGS1 hour ago

My inlaws have appointment next week!:D

Chip Chipperson2 hours ago

They say that the CDC says that there is no maximum interval, but it seems like they're sticking to 28-40 days for their scheduling here. I can't imagine that there's no such thing as too long between shots if immunity doesn't last for life, though.

Jrb19792 hours ago

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-says-u-k-coronavirus-variant-could-become-predominant-strain-n1254392 If this happens a lot will change.

techgeek2 hours ago

My 90yo grandmother called this evening and let me know she was able to get her first Covid vaccine this afternoon at Publix... my aunt snagged a appointment for her on a availability drop earlier in the week. She was very excited and reported no issues at all, they were very organized and she was in and out (with 15 min observation) - along with a appointment for her second dose in Feb. Made my evening and gave a ray of hope that the wheels are actually turning!

helenabear2 hours ago

We have been watching for my dad (75+) in our county there are a couple other locations along with some hospitals/healthcare places as well. I put my dad on the DrugMart list (never heard of them tbh). GE and Kroger are not signing up at this time. Private pharmacies have been told they will get them as well. So my dad is on about 5 lists at this time LOL Plus we will try next week for the county when 75+ opens up. Only 80+ were able to sign up with the county location. i was a bit shocked about CVS as they were sending me info all the time about being a location. I don't really care as GE & Kroger are closer to my dad than CVS, but not by much. Need to look up Drug Mart more. He's happy to drive anywhere in the county though.