Latest COVID-19 models move the peak impacts in Florida to mid-April as Disney continues to look towards reopening

Apr 06, 2020 in "The Walt Disney Company"

Posted: Monday April 6, 2020 9:27am ET by WDWMAGIC Staff

Government-mandated social distancing appears to be having an effect in Florida, as the latest COVID-19 projections move the peak impact away from mid-May to mid-to-late April.

The widely respected Healthdata.org in its latest April 5 update shows Florida hitting peak medical resource use on April 21, with the curve reaching almost zero usage at the start of June. Florida is further behind on the timeline for the United States as a whole, with April 15 being the national peak resource usage, and tending to 0 by the start of June.

Meanwhile at Disney, leaders continue to look towards managing labor and planning for a reopening. Sources familiar with the situation tell us that current planning strategies within the company point towards a best case scenario of a June reopening, and a worst case scenario of September 2020.

With stay-at-home measures in effect, very little is being done inside the parks beyond security teams protecting the property. Construction has long been halted, and day-to-day custodial work is also on hold. It is expected that the parks will require significant work to return them to show ready status prior to any opening.

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MisterPenguin1 hour ago

This article hurt my brain. The authors are making the point that, in general, people don't quit en masse when forced to vaccinate. And their research backs it up. But, they lead with two outlier examples from two weeks ago to gin up the specter that hospitals and businesses everywhere will be shutting down over people quitting rather than getting vaccinated. And they have the clickbait headline of what anti-vaxxers were saying four months ago, which has dramatically changed since then. Yahoo News, again, is not a good source of information.

Vegas Disney Fan2 hours ago

I wonder which state was added and how that affected the totals, the Sept 13 data says “from 49 states”, the Sept 20 data says “from 50 states”. It’s possible most those cases came from the one state that wasn’t previously reporting.

Disney Analyst4 hours ago

Has anyone else’s region show a rise in cases in the young population? We are seeing that now, and it’s alarming.

Polkadotdress8 hours ago

Also from the FL DOH site: No prescription or referral required for State of Florida sites. To support Governor DeSantis’ initiative, there is currently a standing order in Florida signed by the State Surgeon General that allows patients to receive this treatment without a prescription or referral if administered by an eligible health care provider. Such referrals are not required at any of the State of Florida monoclonal antibody treatment sites.

GoofGoof8 hours ago

86% in the 65+ demographic. No clue how many of the other 14% would have qualified for the boosters too. Likely that 90%+ of the breakthrough deaths were in the 65+ or high risk group that just got authorization for a booster at least for Pfizer with the others to follow soon. Seems like pretty solid support for the boosters.

ParentsOf48 hours ago

Here's a scary number. Breakthrough deaths among those who are fully vaccinated increased by 1,453 in 1 week. (Breakthrough hospitalizations increased by 1,893 over the same period.) CDC data from September 13: CDC data from September 20:

GoofGoof9 hours ago

We can agree to disagree. The cases that are reported are overwhelmingly in the unvaccinated population. Many places showing 90%+.

GoofGoof9 hours ago

Don’t forget the argument against mitigations and masks that has been made repeatedly is that people with mild and asymptomatic infection are less likely to be contagious. Here’s a study posted here a few months ago showing just that. So if vaccinated people overwhelmingly have mild or asymptomatic cases which are slipping past testing then they are still not spreading covid as easily. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/4/20-4576_article

lazyboy97o9 hours ago

All you have to do is the math to realize that 30% of the population is plenty of people to allow for huge outbreaks.

Vegas Disney Fan9 hours ago

I guess it depends on if you are worried about infections or deaths. Personally I dont care how many people are asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms, it’s the hospitalizations and deaths I care about. If 100% of the population were vaccinated and 100% of the population was also “sick” with asymptomatic or very mild cases I’d consider that a massive win and an end to the pandemic. Edited to add that if everyone were vaccinated, even with breakthrough cases and deaths, Florida would have about 700 hospitalizations this week instead of 7000 and they’d have about 33 deaths instead of 330. Those are normal flu year numbers, I think we’d all rejoice to experience a boring old flu season right now.

JoeCamel9 hours ago

:banghead::banghead::banghead:

DisneyCane9 hours ago

We shall see. I hope you are right. I'm skeptical when places with 70%+ of the population vaccinated also have the highest level of cases they've ever had. You may not think so but I want you to be right. Also, I don't think that anywhere that doesn't require 5-11 to be vaccinated for school will not see much higher than 50% be vaccinated.

GoofGoof9 hours ago

We should see that once we have areas with very high vaccine rates. No 70% is not “very high” and no area will reach the level we need to be at without the rest of kids being vaccinated. Before you say kids don’t matter for spread, they absolutely do. Can’t have your cake and eat it too here. If kids who have mostly mild or asymptomatic infections are not spreading covid because of that then neither are fully vaccinated people. If fully vaccinated people are spreading covid with their asymptomatic and mild infections than so are kids. So once kids are approved for the vaccine and once we reach “very high vaccination rates” then we should see little community transmission. I know it’s not the answer you want, but that’s going to take some time still. Probably into Q1 of next year. In the meantime we keep working on those who are currently eligible and unvaccinated.