Hurricane Isaias effects may be felt as early as late Saturday night at Walt Disney World

Jul 31, 2020 in "Severe Weather impacts to Walt Disney World"

Tropical-storm force winds and rain from Hurricane Isaias may be felt from Saturday evening at Walt Disney World as the expected path of the hurricane takes the system just off the eastern coast of Florida.

No operational impacts at Walt Disney World have yet been announced.

From the NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL:

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and  Bahamas radar near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 74.5 West. Isaias  is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the day or so followed by a turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamastonight, and move  near or over the Northwestern Bahamas Saturday and near the east coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today and tonight, and Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

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Article Posted: Jul 31, 2020 / 11:31am ET
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LilofanAug 02, 2020

Locals will make it a hurricane party during the sleepless night upcoming.

JIMINYCRAug 02, 2020

On the positive side... Disney has a lot of empty resort rooms that can be opened up if the storm did strengthen and locals need to come occupy if needed. They may not have all the amenities or CM's in place to make the stay enjoyable but at least its shelter.

larryzAug 02, 2020

Don't forget bullets to shoot into the eye to try and kill it.

Magic FeatherAug 02, 2020

I’m under the impression that some offerings may have a slight shift in hours and the campground guests are being moved into solid buildings. That’s the extent of operations changes I’m expecting for this TS.

Captain BarbossaAug 02, 2020

As long as there's enough beer, and Publix subs, I'm sure Floridians will be just fine.

MisterPenguinAug 01, 2020

DisneyCaneAug 01, 2020

Shut down? Just shut down the outdoor attractions when lightning is in the area like usual. There were stronger storms at WDW on Wednesday than there will be from this storm.

ThelazerAug 01, 2020

On the plus side, there isn't many tourists here, so the shutdown plans shouldn't be to hard. Hopefully they will include reopen plans.

DCBakerAug 01, 2020

Tropical Storm Warnings for Orange and Osceola counties - 522 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Orlando - Apopka - Christmas * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 55 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Saturday evening until Sunday evening https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ053&warncounty=FLC097&firewxzone=FLZ053&local_place1=Kissimmee%20FL&product1=Tropical+Storm+Warning&lat=28.2946&lon=-81.4066#.XyS0BC2ZO_U 8pm track update -

JoeJul 31, 2020

RiderJul 31, 2020

The initial motion remains northwestward or 305/12 kt. The 12Z global models have once again made a westward shift due to the ridge to the north of Isaias not weakening as quickly as expected. This is partly due to the ridge being stronger than expected and a shortwave trough over the central United States moving a little slower into the southeastern U.S. than previously indicated. The UKMET and ECMWF explicitly show Isaias making landfall in 36-48 hours along the southeast Florida coast, but appear to weaken the system below hurricane strength. The GFS similarly brings the cyclone close to the southeast and east-central Florida coasts, but also as a somewhat weaker system. In the 48 to 60-hour period, the cyclone is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward and northward through a break in the subtropical ridge extending westward from the Atlantic across Florida and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. By that time, however, Isaias is expected to weaken below hurricane strength due to the combination of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and interaction the Florida peninsula. Around 72 hours, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward and possibly strengthen some before passing over eastern North Carolina on day 4, and across eastern New England on day 5. The NHC track forecast lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCA and NOAA-HCCA and is east of the UKMET and ECMWF with the system forecast to be stronger than those models indicate. Due to the westward shift in the NHC forecast track, a Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been issued for portions of the Florida east coast. The center of Isaias is now located in the center of an expanding CDO feature. The improved inner-core wind field and aforementioned convective structure, along with very warm SSTs near 30C, should support some strengthening overnight and early Saturday morning. However, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to cause a gradual decrease in intensity by Sunday and continue into early next week. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory and is near the higher end of the intensity guidance.

DCBakerJul 31, 2020

Shifted a little more west again.

wdwmagicJul 31, 2020

Slight move back west in the 2pm update

MisterPenguinJul 31, 2020

About a 25-35% chance that WDW will get 45 mph winds starting late Saturday night.