NOAA forecasts 'extremely active' hurricane season for the remainder of 2020

Aug 06, 2020 in "Severe Weather impacts to Walt Disney World"

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2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Posted: Thursday August 6, 2020 12:57pm ET by WDWMAGIC Staff

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, has today released its annual update to the Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.

Magic Kingdom post-Irma in 2017 viewed from the Contemporary. Photo by @andysol

The updated outlook calls for 19-25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 7-11 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 3-6 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). This update covers the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, and includes the nine named storms to date.

“This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks. NOAA will continue to provide the best possible science and service to communities across the Nation for the remainder of hurricane season to ensure public readiness and safety,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “We encourage all Americans to do their part by getting prepared, remaining vigilant, and being ready to take action when necessary.”

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

A comprehensive measure of the overall hurricane season activity is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which measures the combined intensity and duration of all named storms during the season. Based on the ACE projection, combined with the above-average numbers of named storms and hurricanes, the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season has increased to 85%, with only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

“This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average, and our predicted ACE range extends well above NOAA’s threshold for an extremely active season,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Walt Disney World was last impacted by a hurricane in September 2017 with Irma, which resulted in a 2 day closure and damage to landscape throughout the property.

Hurricane Irma damage at Disney's Port Orleans Resort. Photo by @CafeFantasia

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jt04Aug 10, 2020

Murder hornets ate all the EEE carrying mosquitoes this year. So that's good.

MonorailCoralAug 09, 2020

The toads will descend upon the Magic Kingdom in motorcars, merrily on their way to nowhere in particular. Jersey Week is in November. Murder hornets.

Brer PantherAug 09, 2020

The toads will descend upon the Magic Kingdom in motorcars, merrily on their way to nowhere in particular.

TouchdownAug 09, 2020

As for the question will there be more, almost certainly. Hurricane season peaks late Aug-Sept.

MinthorneAug 09, 2020

If you just read this thread your memory would have been assisted.

MisterPenguinAug 07, 2020

You need to read the thread you're posting to for reminders. Links are all there. There's been a few in the past decade.

sndralAug 07, 2020

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/06/899736652/noaa-now-predicts-up-to-25-named-storms-in-the-atlantic-hurricane-season Here’s another article about the ‘prediction’ for 2020. It is predicting more activity than they thought back in May. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/busy-atlantic-hurricane-season-predicted-for-2020 I don’t know squat about Atlantic/tropical weather, but from reading the various weather forums I glean that if wind shear is low and ocean temps are high then you have the ingredients to make a lot of Atlantic/tropical storms/hurricanes. I have the ingredients to make a lot of dinners in my kitchen, doesn’t mean I will, just that I’m more likely to do so if I have the supplies I need at hand. Same thing w/ hurricanes, I think, the ’supply’ (warm water, low wind shear, & other factors their models use) is there, but who knows if Mother Nature will use those ingredients to cook up more named storms. Whether those storms materialize and where they go is anybody’s guess, and unless they make landfall somewhere no one really cares except cruisers who’s ships have to change paths & itineraries to avoid the fish storms, but nobody is cruising these days, so there’s that.

DisneyCaneAug 07, 2020

Even the most advanced model interpreted by the best expert couldn't predict to that level of precision. They can barely predict the day before precisely where will experience various wind speeds.

JD2000Aug 07, 2020

So... how many are predicted or should be expected, in the remaining season, to affect the parks, with at least tropical storm winds?

Sorcerer MickeyAug 07, 2020

Like @DisneyCane said, the "active/extremely active" prediction is almost tradition. But that doesn't mean there aren't hurricanes. They just might not make landfall in Florida - or anywhere else. EDIT: I think it was last year or the year before where a lot of hurricanes meandered in the Pacific, for example.

DisneyCaneAug 07, 2020

I'm trying to think of the last time they didn't predict above average or busier than normal. I truly can't remember.

larryzAug 07, 2020

I suppose. Wake me when it's 2004 again.

MisterPenguinAug 07, 2020

If you don't test for tropical depressions, you find the the number of them go down.

larryzAug 07, 2020

Well, the situation wouldn't appear quite as dire if the NHC would quit naming every cluster of thunderstorms they see in the Caribbean. Must be budget justification time for NOAA.