NOAA has released its outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and the forecast offers some cautious good news — a below-normal season is the most likely outcome.
For Walt Disney World guests planning trips between June and November, that's worth factoring into your travel plans.
NOAA puts a 55% chance on a below-normal season, with a 35% chance of near-normal activity and just a 10% chance of above-normal. The season runs June 1 through November 30.
What the numbers look like
NOAA forecasts:
- 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
- 3-6 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
- 1-3 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher)
For context, an average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. NOAA places 70% confidence in these ranges.
Why a quieter season is expected
Two main forces are pulling in opposite directions. El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the season — a condition that typically suppresses tropical storm and hurricane development in the Atlantic. On the other side, Atlantic ocean temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer than normal, and trade winds are expected to be weaker than average, both of which favor more activity.
El Niño's influence is the stronger factor in this outlook, tipping the forecast toward a below-normal season.
A below-normal forecast doesn't mean the season is risk-free. NOAA's National Weather Service Director Ken Graham put it plainly: "It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season."
NOAA's outlook covers overall seasonal activity. It doesn't predict where or when storms will make landfall — that's determined by shorter-term weather patterns closer to the time.
If you're heading to Walt Disney World between late August and mid-October — historically the most active stretch of hurricane season — it's still worth monitoring forecasts and having a plan. Walt Disney World, located in Central Florida, sits in a region that can be affected by both direct hurricane strikes and tropical storm conditions from storms passing offshore.
New tools for this season
NOAA is rolling out several upgraded forecasting capabilities for 2026:
- The National Hurricane Center's forecast cone graphic now includes tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas across the continental U.S., Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
- For the first time, data from small uncrewed aircraft (drones) will feed directly into NOAA's hurricane forecast model, with scientists saying the addition can improve hurricane intensity forecast accuracy by 10%.
- NOAA's Flood Inundation Mapping service, which shows which streets and neighborhoods are likely to flood, currently covers 60% of the U.S. population and will expand to nearly 100% by late September 2026.
NOAA will update the 2026 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, ahead of the season's historical peak in mid-September through October.
For preparedness information, visit weather.gov/safety and Ready.gov.
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