2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Updated — Good News for Walt Disney World Fall Visitors

NOAA has issued its August 6 update to the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, and the forecast has shifted in a more favorable direction.

The probability of a below-normal season has jumped to 75%, up from 55% in the original May outlook. For Walt Disney World visitors with fall trips planned, the updated numbers offer some reassurance, though the season's most active period is still ahead.

Updated storm numbers

The revised forecast for the full season (June 1 through November 30) now stands at:

• 7-13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
• 2-6 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
• 0-2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher)

Those ranges include the two named storms that have already formed this season. A typical Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The updated season probability breakdown:

• 75% chance of below-normal activity
• 20% chance of a near-normal season
• 5% chance of above-normal activity

NOAA's August 6, 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update: Graphics and Data

Two storms down, both in the Gulf

So far in 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced two named tropical storms — Arthur and Bertha — and no hurricanes.

Tropical Storm Arthur formed in mid-June in the Gulf of America waters off the Texas coast. It brought record rainfall to parts of Louisiana and spawned tornadoes along the Gulf coast. Tropical Storm Bertha followed, forming south of the Florida panhandle before making landfall in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana.

NOAA's August 6, 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update: Graphics and Data

El Niño is driving the quieter outlook

The improved forecast comes down to El Niño, which first emerged in the equatorial Pacific in June and has continued to strengthen. El Niño increases wind shear — atmospheric conditions that disrupt tropical storm formation and limit intensification of existing storms.

Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's National Weather Service, said: "When El Niño emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity, and this El Niño continues to get stronger every month."

Other factors — Atlantic Ocean temperatures near average and a neutral west African monsoon — are playing a smaller role this season.

Walt Disney World

If you're visiting Walt Disney World this fall, the updated forecast is encouraging. But the season's peak — historically mid-September through mid-October — is still to come. Central Florida can be affected by tropical storms and hurricanes tracking through the Gulf or up the Atlantic coast, so it's worth keeping an eye on forecasts as your trip approaches.

NOAA's outlook covers overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Specific storm tracks are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching land. NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) provides tropical weather outlooks up to seven days in advance and issues watches and warnings for individual storms.